Teams with Leaky Defense
Backs teams that have averaged more than 1.83 red zone attempts per game over their last 3 games, kept third down attempts under 11.83 per game in that span, and allowed more than 17.3 points per game over their last 5 games—identifying offenses reaching scoring position efficiently while defenses have been yielding at least two touchdowns plus a field goal per contest.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
492
848
356
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
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When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Miscellaneous Redzoneattempts
Avg 3 Miscellaneous Thirddownattempts
Avg 5 Pts Allowed
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Teams with Leaky Defense" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 492-356 (58.02% hit rate) with 10.76% ROI across 848 graded picks. Closing line value averages 14.99, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Teams with Leaky Defense system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Teams with Leaky Defense system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1650 total qualifying games, with 848 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
1650
HIT RATE
58.02%
RECORD
492-356
ROI
+10.76%