Favorites with Fair Catch Volume
Backs heavy moneyline favorites (implied win probability above 79.3%) whose recent games show elevated fair catch rates on kicks and moderately lower pass completion percentages.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
157
HIT RATE
95.40%
RECORD
83-4
ROI
+82.13%
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Kick Faircatchpct
Avg 3 Pass Completionpct
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins more than 79% of the time.
Related NFL Moneyline Systems
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63-4 record · 94.0% hit rate
Home Favorites with 82%+ Odds
105-9 record · 92.1% hit rate
Elo Edge With Scoring Variance
31-3 record · 91.2% hit rate
Elite QB vs Cold Offenses
75-8 record · 90.4% hit rate
Home Dogs with Hot Turnovers
92-11 record · 89.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Favorites with Fair Catch Volume" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 83-4 (95.40% hit rate) with 82.13% ROI across 87 graded picks. Closing line value averages 74.01, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Favorites with Fair Catch Volume system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Favorites with Fair Catch Volume system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 157 total qualifying games, with 87 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
83
87
4
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES