Home Favorites with Pass Defense
Backs home teams with strong recent pass defense activity (averaging over 3.1667 passes defended per game in their last 3 games), limited third down conversions, and an elevated home Elo rating above 53.42.
Part of all NFL Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Def Passesdefended
Avg 3 Miscellaneous Thirddownconvs
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 53.42. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
TOTAL PICKS
313
HIT RATE
74.53%
RECORD
120-41
ROI
+42.29%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
120
161
41
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Favorites with Pass Defense" NFL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 120-41 (74.53% hit rate) with 42.29% ROI across 161 graded picks. Closing line value averages 33.40, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Favorites with Pass Defense system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL moneyline pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Favorites with Pass Defense system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 313 total qualifying games, with 161 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.