Home Teams vs Shaky Goalies
Backs home teams rated competitively or better by Elo (within 2.5 points), with established home performance, facing goaltenders showing high recent inconsistency in even-strength save percentage, and drawing referees with a historical tendency toward home team victories.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
210
HIT RATE
87.62%
RECORD
92-13
ROI
+67.27%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
92
105
13
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, '26 | Ottawa Senators @ New Jersey Devils | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.87 |
| Apr 11, '26 | New Jersey Devils @ Detroit Red Wings | away | W | — | +$1.16 |
| Apr 9, '26 | Pittsburgh Penguins @ New Jersey Devils | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 7, '26 | Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils | home | L | — | -$1.00 |
| Apr 5, '26 | New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens | away | W | — | +$1.26 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Washington Capitals @ New Jersey Devils | home | W | -0.01 | +$0.84 |
| Mar 31, '26 | New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers | away | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$213.00 across 7 picks.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 55.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Opp Pavg 5 P Evenstrengthsaves Std
Referee Home Win %
Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 52%.
Picks by Month
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Home Favorites with Elo Edge
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Teams vs Shaky Goalies" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 92-13 (87.62% hit rate) with 67.27% ROI across 105 graded picks. Closing line value averages 12.70, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Teams vs Shaky Goalies system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Teams vs Shaky Goalies system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 210 total qualifying games, with 105 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.