Favorites vs Stingy Defenses
Backs the moneyline favorite when they have been outshot recently (averaging -1.55 or worse shot differential over their last 10 games), are blocking few shots in their last 5 games, and face an opponent that has allowed very few goals over their last 5 contests.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Gen Shotdifferential
Market Role
Team is the underdog.
Opp Pavg 5 P Avggoalsagainst Mean
Pavg 5 P Blockedshots Mean
TOTAL PICKS
132
HIT RATE
67.95%
RECORD
53-25
ROI
+29.72%
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, '26 | San Jose Sharks @ Winnipeg Jets | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 13, '26 | New York Rangers @ Florida Panthers | home | W | -0.09 | +$0.90 |
| Apr 13, '26 | New York Rangers @ Florida Panthers | away | L | +0.10 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 11, '26 | Philadelphia Flyers @ Winnipeg Jets | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 10, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues | away | W | — | +$0.94 |
| Apr 6, '26 | Seattle Kraken @ Winnipeg Jets | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.61 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers | home | W | -0.11 | +$0.94 |
| Apr 1, '26 | Winnipeg Jets @ Chicago Blackhawks | away | W | +0.01 | +$0.69 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$39.30 across 8 picks.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
53
78
25
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Picks by Month
Related NHL Moneyline Systems
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Elite Elo Favorites at Home
47-4 record · 92.2% hit rate
Home Favorites with Elo Edge
55-5 record · 91.7% hit rate
Rested Takeaway Machines vs Careless Offenses
28-3 record · 90.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Favorites vs Stingy Defenses" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 53-25 (67.95% hit rate) with 29.72% ROI across 78 graded picks. Closing line value averages -4.27, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Favorites vs Stingy Defenses system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Favorites vs Stingy Defenses system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 132 total qualifying games, with 78 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.