Favorites vs Leaky Defense
Backs moneyline favorites that have a lower Elo rating than their opponent, when the opponent has allowed goals at an elevated rate over their last 5 games and the favorite has recorded limited even strength save volume recently.
Part of all NHL Moneyline system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
92
133
41
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Recent Picks
| Date | Game | Side | Result | CLV | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, '26 | Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.89 |
| Apr 26, '26 | Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers | home | L | +0.01 | -$1.00 |
| Apr 22, '26 | Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers | home | W | +0.01 | +$0.96 |
| Apr 13, '26 | Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers | home | W | +0.11 | +$0.97 |
| Apr 5, '26 | Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers | home | W | -0.01 | +$0.62 |
| Apr 2, '26 | Detroit Red Wings @ Philadelphia Flyers | home | L | -0.01 | -$1.00 |
Profit Curve
$1 flat-stake cumulative profit from graded picks, sorted by settlement date. Net: +$243.50 across 6 picks.
Related NHL Moneyline Systems
Elo Favorites with Score Variance
72-5 record · 93.5% hit rate
Home Elo Favorites in Low-Scoring
51-4 record · 92.7% hit rate
Elite Elo Favorites at Home
47-4 record · 92.2% hit rate
Home Favorites with Elo Edge
55-5 record · 91.7% hit rate
Rested Takeaway Machines vs Careless Offenses
28-3 record · 90.3% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Market Role
Team is the underdog.
Opp Pavg 5 P Avggoalsagainst Mean
Pavg 5 P Evenstrengthsaves Mean
Picks by Month
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Favorites vs Leaky Defense" NHL Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 92-41 (69.17% hit rate) with 32.06% ROI across 133 graded picks. Closing line value averages 11.08, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Favorites vs Leaky Defense system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NHL moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Favorites vs Leaky Defense system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 222 total qualifying games, with 133 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
222
HIT RATE
69.17%
RECORD
92-41
ROI
+32.06%