Over After Late-Season XP Struggles
Backs the over in games after week 14 where the team has made 93.8% or fewer of its extra point attempts over the last three games and has low recent performance momentum (EWMA ≤ 3.02).
Part of all NFL Over/Under system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 3 Kick Extrapointpct
Ewma Momentum
Game Number In Season
TOTAL PICKS
836
HIT RATE
56.73%
RECORD
194-148
ROI
+8.29%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
194
342
148
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NFL Over/Under Systems
Over Late-Season Secure Momentum
61-30 record · 67.0% hit rate
Under Late-Season Defensive Teams
37-19 record · 66.1% hit rate
Over vs Elite Recent Defenses
112-65 record · 63.3% hit rate
Team Over After Blowouts
51-30 record · 63.0% hit rate
Late Season Over vs Stingy Defenses
110-67 record · 62.1% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Over After Late-Season XP Struggles" NFL Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 194-148 (56.73% hit rate) with 8.29% ROI across 342 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.58, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Over After Late-Season XP Struggles system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NFL over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Over After Late-Season XP Struggles system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 836 total qualifying games, with 342 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.