Team Over with Low Fouls High Variance
Triggers when a team in their first 103 games of the season has averaged 1.77 or fewer personal fouls per player over their last 5 games and exhibits high statistical variance (variance index above 1695.83) for the season. Identifies teams with recent disciplined play and volatile season-long performance before the final stretch.
Part of all NBA Over/Under system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Game Number In Season
Pavg 5 P Avgfouls Mean
Season Variance Ix
TOTAL PICKS
273
HIT RATE
72.80%
RECORD
91-34
ROI
+38.98%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
91
125
34
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related NBA Over/Under Systems
Disciplined Teams Over
102-42 record · 70.8% hit rate
Over vs Familiar Home Favorites
97-44 record · 68.8% hit rate
Team Unders vs Stingy Defenses
55-25 record · 68.8% hit rate
Over vs Familiar Chippy Teams
91-43 record · 67.9% hit rate
Over in Rivalry Matchups
133-74 record · 64.3% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Team Over with Low Fouls High Variance" NBA Over/Under system still work?▾
The system's live record is 91-34 (72.80% hit rate) with 38.98% ROI across 125 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.85, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Team Over with Low Fouls High Variance system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a NBA over/under pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Team Over with Low Fouls High Variance system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 273 total qualifying games, with 125 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.