Home Teams with Plate Discipline
Backs home teams that have demonstrated exceptional plate discipline by averaging over 128 pitches seen per game across their last 5 games, hold an elevated home Elo rating above 5.7, and play under umpires with a home-team win rate exceeding 56%.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Bat Pitches
Avg 5 Bat Pitches
Home Team Elo Rating
Home team's Elo rating is above 5.735. Higher Elo = stronger team per the model.
Referee Home Win %
Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 56%.
TOTAL PICKS
4507
HIT RATE
69.15%
RECORD
1450-647
ROI
+32.01%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
1450
2097
647
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Home Teams with Plate Discipline" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 1450-647 (69.15% hit rate) with 32.01% ROI across 2097 graded picks. Closing line value averages 2.28, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Home Teams with Plate Discipline system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Home Teams with Plate Discipline system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 4507 total qualifying games, with 2097 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.