Favorites with Efficient Baserunning
Backs strong favorites on the spread who have left 11.3 or fewer runners on base per game over their last 5 games, hold an implied win probability above 66.3%, and are receiving 0 or fewer runs on the spread.
Part of all MLB ATS system records.
TOTAL PICKS
185
HIT RATE
67.90%
RECORD
55-26
ROI
+29.63%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
55
81
26
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 5 Bat Runnersleftonbase
Implied Win Probability
Market implies the team wins more than 66% of the time.
Team Spread
Related MLB ATS Systems
Underdogs in Mid-Total H2H Games
98-28 record · 77.8% hit rate
Dogs with Recent Fielding Errors
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Dogs with Shaky Defense
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile HR Offense
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile Power
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Favorites with Efficient Baserunning" MLB ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 55-26 (67.90% hit rate) with 29.63% ROI across 81 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.00, meaning picks are consistently behind the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Favorites with Efficient Baserunning system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Favorites with Efficient Baserunning system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 185 total qualifying games, with 81 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.