Elo Value with Pro-Home Umps
Backs teams with a modest Elo advantage or small deficit that are undervalued by the betting market, in games officiated by umpires whose historical home team win rate exceeds 48.21%.
Part of all MLB Moneyline system records.
TOTAL PICKS
1418
HIT RATE
68.12%
RECORD
483-226
ROI
+30.06%
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
483
709
226
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Elo Diff
Elo Diff
Elo Vs Market
Referee Home Win %
Crew has a historical home-team win rate above 48%.
Related MLB Moneyline Systems
Elite Favorites With Steady Bats
123-17 record · 87.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Steady Offense
178-30 record · 85.6% hit rate
Home Favorites with Steady Offense
123-24 record · 83.7% hit rate
Home Favorites with Stable Offense
136-28 record · 82.9% hit rate
Home Teams with Pro-Home Umps
394-104 record · 79.1% hit rate
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "Elo Value with Pro-Home Umps" MLB Moneyline system still work?▾
The system's live record is 483-226 (68.12% hit rate) with 30.06% ROI across 709 graded picks. Closing line value averages 11.37, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the Elo Value with Pro-Home Umps system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB moneyline pick only when all 4 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the Elo Value with Pro-Home Umps system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 1418 total qualifying games, with 709 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.