at Weak Home Venues
Backs teams with poor caught-stealing defense (3.54% or less by catchers over last 10 games) and strong recent pitcher qualification rates (over 92% in last 5 starts), playing at home venues where the home team wins 45.58% or fewer of their games.
Part of all MLB ATS system records.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN
101
167
66
WINS
TOTAL BETS
LOSSES
Related MLB ATS Systems
Underdogs in Mid-Total H2H Games
98-28 record · 77.8% hit rate
Dogs with Recent Fielding Errors
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Dogs with Shaky Defense
215-78 record · 73.4% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile HR Offense
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
Underdogs with Volatile Power
218-82 record · 72.7% hit rate
When This System Fires
The system places a pick only when every one of these triggers holds true at game time.
Avg 10 Field Catchercaughtstealingpct
Pavg 5 P Isqualified Mean
Referee Home Win %
Crew has a historical home-team win rate below 46%.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the "at Weak Home Venues" MLB ATS system still work?▾
The system's live record is 101-66 (60.48% hit rate) with 15.46% ROI across 167 graded picks. Closing line value averages 0.04, meaning picks are consistently beating the sharpest closing price. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results — track it forward to confirm the edge persists.
When does the at Weak Home Venues system fire a pick?▾
The system triggers a MLB ats pick only when all 3 of its filter conditions are satisfied at game time. See the "When This System Fires" section above for the exact thresholds on each condition — the system waits for every trigger before placing a bet, which is why sample sizes are smaller than total games.
What is the sample size for the at Weak Home Venues system?▾
The system has been evaluated against 309 total qualifying games, with 167 of those reaching a graded outcome (wins + losses). Sample size matters — any system under ~15-20 graded picks is noise; 50+ is where a real edge shows statistical signal.
TOTAL PICKS
309
HIT RATE
60.48%
RECORD
101-66
ROI
+15.46%